Considerations to Becoming a More Profitble Sports Bettor
There are a lot of ways to be profitable in sports betting. I’ve found a few ways over the last several years to improve my overall numbers, and I thought I’d share them with you all!
1. PLAY MORE UNDERS
I know. Unders aren't "as fun" to root for, but you know what's fun? Winning and making money! So, why do I consider them more profitable? Firstly, It'll be easy to spot if you use projections as part of your process. Star lines are almost always inflated. The books know they will get heavy volume to the over (or on alt lines for parlays). They often suck the value out of star player overs.
Trends have become a really popular way for sports bettors to lean on. With apps like props.cash and others, trends make it a great way to describe and visually show why someone likes an over/under. The books know this and I have noticed that SB's are now adjusting for trends. If a guy has hit a line in 5 straight, they'll add juice or bump the line up. Again, you'll see this if you use projections. That's not to say never use trends, but don't let that be your primary reason for taking a prop.
There are certain parts of sports that only help you in one direction: injuries, blowouts, benchings, etc. These are typically only beneficial for unders. You can never predict injuries and blowouts/benchings can be tough to predict as well, but at the end of the day they could help you cash your under or ruin your over.
Ultimately, there is just more overall value on unders. That doesn't mean you have to solely play them, but they should be worth your consideration. Over the long term, they will help you be more profitable.
2. USE EXPECTED VALUE (EV)
People tend to stand on two sides of this: only use EV to bet or never use EV to bet. It doesn’t have to be that way. Yes, it’s been proven that if you simply use +EV, you can be profitable. What does that mean for us that use other methods? In my opinion, it’s silly not to use it at all. I DO NOT strictly use +EV, but I do use it as part of my process.
What is EV? EV stands for Expected Value and compares prices of a play across multiple books to find and outlier price. It’s essentially letting the books do the work for you to find value. If 4 books have an over priced at -110 and a fiftth book has it at +120, there’s value here based on the consensus. I have found that for props, some books tend to be sharper than other. Specifically FanDuel, Caesars and Pinnacle tend to have sharper lines, while books like DraftKings, Bet365 and BetMGM do not.
So how do I use it? My process typically starts with a mix of projections and matchup-based data. However, when I’m evaluating props, I’m also looking at prices across the books. If I see some EV value (especially compared to sharper books), that’ll factor in to if I take the bet or not. If I see a prop I like with a good matchup AND it has some +EV to a sharper book, it’ll strengthen my argument to take it.
Finally, how do you evaluate EV. There are plenty of apps that can do it for you. Specifically, OddsShopper is an app I use. You can also do it manually, by finding the price on all of your sportsbooks and comparing. You are likely already shopping for the best price anyways.
3. SIGN UP FOR EVERY SPORTSBOOK AVAILABLE
I’ve seen so many bettors that only have one or two SB’s, but could have 8+ of them. Why is it important to have so many SB’s? The answer is simple: finding the best possible price for every bet you make will make you more profitable. Is there a big difference in -110 and -120. Not for a single bet, but over time it’ll make a major difference. Books tend to all have different prices and line movement. If you pay close attention, the differences can be crazy. You could find an over prop at 20.5 on one book for -110 and over 21.5 at -110 on another book.
I personally have 14 SB’s. Any time I make a bet I search every book for the best price. Different SB’s will be availble depending on where you live, but I’d advise taking advantage of all the ones you can. They also all offer promotions of some sort, which can result in some extra value.
4. EXPLORE NEW AND UNPOPULAR MARKETS
This is a big one. SB’s tend to spend more time perfecting algorithms for the most popular markets. Think about it. What are the most difficult markets to be profitable in? MLB pitcher strikeouts, NHL shots on goal, NBA rebounds, etc. The hardest props to be profitable in are the ones people enjoy betting on.
What are some unpopular markets that have value? Steals and blocks in NBA, hitter strikeouts/walks in MLB, and QB rushing yards in NFL – to name a few. When I zoom out on seasons I find I do very well in the most niche markets. Newer markets can take time for SB’s to hone in their algorithm. For instance, when hits+runs+RBI’s was introduced, it was a really profitable market. Last season, it was less profitable, and they will continue to work on that algo since it’s become popular. Same with tackle+assists props for NFL. So take advantage of them while you can!
5. MOST OF YOUR PORTFOLIO SHOULD BE STRAIGHT BETS
Straight bets give you the best chance to be profitable long term. It’s a fact. Yes, parlays and lottos are fun, but they are difficult to cash with consistency. I would say close to 95% of my betting portfolio is made up of straight bets, with 5% allocated to the more fun markets (lottos, ladders, parlays, etc.).
Being disciplined is the most important part of being a profitable sports bettor. Hitting a big parlay is such an adrenaline rush, but shouldn’t change you allocation. Just because you hit one, doesn’t mean you’ll hit another. Leaning more heavily on longer shot plays is going to stunt your long term success. Don’t let you hard work go to waste! Sprinkling on these plays should be fun, but expect to lose most of them.
Hope this helped some of you out there! I could go on, but this blog post is already too long! I you have any questions, feel free to reach out to any of my social media accounts. Happy to help! A big goal of mine is to educate sports bettors!
-PvB Bets