I want to start by asking you three questions:
1. Do you have a set unit size?
2. Does a majority of your portfolio contain straight plays?
3. Do you track your progress/plays?
If you can’t say yes to each and every one of these questions, you may not be managing your bankroll well. I’ve had an interesting journey in regards to bankroll. When sports betting was first legalized in my state I had a very limited knowledge of sports betting in general. Sports books had given me bonus money for signing up after an initial deposit/bet. Now, I kid you not. Since putting in initials deposits for each book, I have NEVER put my own additional money into these accounts. I turned their promotional money into withdrawable dollars, riding out and building upon that initial money within my sports book accounts.
1. Unit Size
What is a unit size? Well, a unit is an amount that you bet per wager that should stay the same. For example, if your unit size is $50 that is the amount you will wager for each bet placed. Now, you can vary the unit size, but it is all still based on that initial unit amount:
1 unit = $50
0.5 units = $25
2 units = $100
I personally like to stay around 1 unit per play, but the unit amount can vary depending on confidence. Now, this is a big problem in the gambling community. Since units wagered is directly proportional to confidence in a play, someone that posts a 5 or 10 unit play is 5X or 10X as confident in that play. One thing I can tell you is that, unless there is a legit mistake by the books, I can’t think of a time that I was 5X or 10X confident in a play. If you find yourself constantly wagering 3-10 units, you simply need to raise your unit size. The books are not bad at setting lines, I promise you that. They spend millions of dollars every year to generate the most accruate projections and lines. When finding a bet, you are simply looking for some value that has not been incorporated by the books. One of the worst things that happen in the gambling community is people are lead to believe that plays are “locks”, “guarentees” or “max-worthy plays.” This should be a big warning sign if you see this from people you follow. It’s a marketing technique that some iwll use to think they win all the time. The truth is, they don’t… or at least not as much as they lead on.
What does an edge actually look like? Here is what some want you to beleive:
Book play winning percentage: 50%
“Lock” winning percentage: 95%
This is very misleading and the books make a lot of money thanks to this understanding. Here is what an actual edge looks like mathematically:
Book play winning percentage: 50%
Individual’s read winning percentage: 55-60%
Yup, it’s that small often. You are getting rich over night, but over time these reads will continue to bolster your bankroll.
2. Straight vs Parlays/Lottos
This leads into our next bullet point: straight plays vs parlays/lottos. I personally beleive that 80-90% of your daily bankroll use should be dedicated to striaght plays. Smaller odds parlays owuld fall under this as well (say -150 to +150). Straight plays, in my opinion, are the easiest way to make money long term. It may not be as fun as hitting a 6-leg +1000, but if you constantly chase the parlay, you will find yourself down money more often than not. They key is to zoom out. You may have hit a +600 that put you up +60 units, but what did it take to get there? 80 units? What will it take to get to the next one? You can use more mathematically driven builds to make +EV parlays and find some success, but I think your foundation needs to be in straight plays if you want to build long term wealth through sports betting.
3. Tracking Progress
Our final bullet is tracking your plays. THIS IS HUGE and I’ve helped out a lot of people that don’t do this. How can you tell if you are profitable long term? How can you identify which sports/play types are better for you? How to you find which cappers you follow that have made profits? TRACKING. It doesn’t necessarily matter how you do it, but there are many ways to get it done. You can easily build a spreadsheet or find a template online to help track your plays. You can also use free resources, such as Pikkit (you can use referral code “PVB”) or Action Network. For Pikkit, you can link your sportsbooks and it will automatically update your statistics every time you log on. Action is also a great place to manually track your bets more easily than with a spreadsheet. Tracking is essential for long term success. It also gives you an opportunity to zoom out when you are in a cold stretch.